GRE閱讀｜As of late 1980s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models....－熱血背包客莊ㄟ

As of late 1980s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models could accurately predict whether cloud systems would help or hurt a warming globe. Some studies suggested that a four percent increase in stratocumulus clouds over the ocean could compensate for a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide, preventing a potentially disastrous planet-wide temperature increase. On the other hand, an increase in cirrus clouds could increase global warming.

That clouds represented the weakest element in climate models was illustrated by a study of fourteen such models. Comparing climate forecasts for a world with double the current amount of carbon dioxide, researchers found that the models agreed quite well if clouds were not included. But when clouds were incorporated, a wide range of forecasts was produced. With such discrepancies plaguing the models, scientists could not easily predict how quickly the world’s climate would change, nor could they tell which regions would face dustier droughts or deadlier monsoons.

1. The author of the passage is primarily concerned with

A. confirming a theory

B. supporting a statement

C. presenting new information

D. predicting future discoveries

E. comparing points of view

2. It can be inferred that one reason the fourteen models described in the passage failed to agree was that

A. they failed to incorporate the most up-to-date information about the effect of clouds on climate

B. they were based on faulty information about factors other than clouds that affect climate

C. they were based on different assumptions about the overall effects of clouds on climate

D. their originators disagreed about the kinds of forecasts the models should provide

E. their originators disagreed about the factors other than clouds that should be included in the models

3. The information in the passage suggests that scientists would have to answer which of the following questions in order to predict the effect of clouds on the warming of the globe?

A. What kinds of cloud systems will form over the Earth?

B. How can cloud systems be encouraged to form over the ocean?

C. What are the causes of the projected planetwide temperature increase?

D. What proportion of cloud systems are currently composed of cirrus clouds?

E. What proportion of the clouds in the atmosphere form over land masses?

結構分析：

找出文章主角，然後文章的寫作形式，兩個找到之後就立馬開工解題了

As of late 1980s, neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models could accurately predict whether cloud systems would help or hurt a warming globe. 開頭點出主角『雲跟氣候暖化的關係』，然後neither theorists nor large-scale computer climate models這是給兩組條件，在這條件下我不知道，雲跟暖化的關係，所以還是不知道結果，因此下一句話就要繼續看下去了。

Some studies suggested that a four percent increase in stratocumulus clouds over the ocean could compensate for a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide, preventing a potentially disastrous planet-wide temperature increase. 看到Some studies 其實超開心的，這就是托福獨立寫作的模板啊，Do you agree or disagree with the following statement?....題目問說你同不同意雲會使得氣候暖化加劇，然後模板就教你有些人認為是加劇沒錯，然後有人認為不是啊，沒有加劇這一回事，或許還降低了，然後最後在寫你認為怎樣，它媽的看到這我未看先猜，等等一定會有一邊認為雲會造成溫度增高，然後另一派會說雲會造成溫度變低，最後作者會說，我覺得兩個都不對，不信我們繼續看下去。

On the other hand, an increase in cirrus clouds could increase global warming.有沒有，一種雲叫做陳小雲的給他代號叫ＳＴＲ好了，他會造成阻止溫度上升，注意！！preventing a potentially disastrous planet-wide temperature increase這個邏輯上絕對不能等價成溫度下降喔。好的另一個潘越雲給他代號叫做ＣＩＣ她會造成溫度上升。好拉看到這裡這篇第一段就是你在托福寫作的滿分模板。

經過剛剛略看之後，然後我還是不知道作者要表達啥，因為上面都是講別人的觀點，他自己的觀點還沒出來，所以第二段一定要看，

That clouds represented the weakest element in climate models was illustrated by a study of fourteen such models. 喔喔這裡感覺想搞轉折，因為他說在14像模型中，『雲不是個咖』。那至於為何不是咖，接下來的內容就可看可不看了，因為已經知道大概要說雲為什麼不是重點，所以接下來我在注意看有沒有轉折，有的話看一下，抓主幹，然後就可以做題了

下面空了一句之後來個轉折，But when clouds were incorporated, a wide range of forecasts was produced. 有雲的考量，氣象預報的域度就特廣大，結合剛剛第一句看到的東西說到，雲對於氣候模型沒啥用處，然後這裡說有喔有用喔～～會造成氣象預報不準，wide range of forecasts 我估且理解成『不準』，感覺好像在酸雲不只沒用還來亂。

最後說道With such discrepancies....看到代名詞就別看了，補充說明用的而已。

第一題：

問到作者看法如何，就是看文章最後結論下在哪裡即可，開頭說我不知道雲是幹嗎的？不知道，然後轉折but說這造成氣象預測極大的困擾，模型範圍變大，換言之最後一句都不需要看，光看轉折這句話就是在呼應首段開頭的主題句了，我不知道雲事幹媽用的？？這是大至上作者的觀點，回歸考題，選項考的是個定義，單就作者最關心的事情是啥，那一定是到底雲會不會讓溫度變高，這個是開頭的主題句，及作者最關心的事情，否則不會當主題句，而且剛剛文章結尾也呼應了『不知道』，所以算是對陳述的一個申論，探討他是對是錯，那文章結尾做回文那便是支持了，所以就是支持陳述，選（Ｂ）

補充：開頭的主題句不是theory，因為理論是經過研究或經驗累積的，所以『不會具有不確定性』

第二題：

定位詞是fourteen models，題目中的agree是一致，不是同意，所以找到那句話之後去推理，That clouds represented the weakest element in climate models was illustrated by a study of fourteen such models.這句話看完不會有結果，因為他只介紹十四種的模型說明『clouds ＝ weakest』只說明結論，沒給理由，所以要繼續往下看，Comparing climate forecasts for a world with double the current amount of carbon dioxide, researchers found that the models agreed quite well if clouds were not included.我抓到兇手了，這個是推論題的經典考題，正反對立推理，題目問Ｂ，線索留Ａ，及Ａ的細節，然後答案就是Ｂ的細節。這裡看到題目是fail to agree VS. 文章線索的agreed。好了那我們來分析這句話吧，起頭的分詞構句就不理他了，因為分詞構句本身就不是重點，加上Comparing這個比較詞類出現就表示當作後方的主幹的補充，讓主幹更仔細而已，你看分詞構句裡頭的double是在下模型的條件，二氧化碳加倍，跳過了不理會，但是這種類型很適合用在寫作上，一方面增加字數，一方面證明會用變化句型，在一方面表現出比較後的張力，你看這數量級二氧化碳加倍，對上主幹模型一致沒加倍，強烈對比立現（有變對沒變），一鴨三吃啊！！好的那不看分詞構句，所以就要看後面表條件的if clouds were not included.這就得出理由拉，沒有雲的考量，答案是一致的，所以題目問他答案不一致，表示把雲納入考量，唯一答案就是（Ｃ）